Modeling the SAC microstructure evolution under thermal, thermomechanical and electrical constraints

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Methodology

© The Author(s) 2019. A detailed overview of the methodologies used to develop the 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenario presented in this book. Starting with the overall modelling approach, the interaction of seven different models is explained which are used to calculate and developed detailed scenarios for greenhouse gas emission and energy pathways to stay within a 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C global warming limit. The following models are presented: For the non-energy GHG emission pathways, the Generalized Equal Quantile Walk (GQW)method, the land-based sequestration design method and the Carbon cycle and climate (MAGICC) model. For the energy pathways, a renewable energy resources assessment for space constrained environments ([R]E-SPACE, the transport scenario model (TRAEM), the Energy System Model (EM) and the power system model [R]E 24/7. The methodologies of an employment analysis model, and a metal resource assessment tool are outlined. These models have been used to examine the analysis of the energy scenario results

Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss

Worldwide glacier retreat and associated future runoff changes raise major concerns over the sustainability of global water resources1,2,3,4, but global-scale assessments of glacier decline and the resulting hydrological consequences are scarce5,6. Here we compute global glacier runoff changes for 56 large-scale glacierized drainage basins to 2100 and analyse the glacial impact on streamflow. In roughly half of the investigated basins, the modelled annual glacier runoff continues to rise until a maximum (‘peak water’) is reached, beyond which runoff steadily declines. In the remaining basins, this tipping point has already been passed. Peak water occurs later in basins with larger glaciers and higher ice-cover fractions. Typically, future glacier runoff increases in early summer but decreases in late summer. Although most of the 56 basins have less than 2% ice coverage, by 2100 one-third of them might experience runoff decreases greater than 10% due to glacier mass loss in at least one month of the melt season, with the largest reductions in central Asia and the Andes. We conclude that, even in large-scale basins with minimal ice-cover fraction, the downstream hydrological effects of continued glacier wastage can be substantial, but the magnitudes vary greatly among basins and throughout the melt season

Modelling the SAC microstructure evolution under thermal, thermo-mechanical and electronical constraints

L'assemblage tridimensionnel des circuits microélectroniques et leur utilisation dansdes conditions environnementales extrêmement sévères nécessitent ledéveloppement d’alternatives plus robustes pour les contacts électriques. Unetechnique prometteuse est la transformation des contacts de brasure conventionnelleen composés intermétalliques (IMC). Ce processus est appelé « Transient LiquidPhase Soldering » (TLPS).Dans ce contexte, des tests accélérés permettant la formation d’IMC parélectromigration et thermomigration ont été effectués sur des structures « Packageon Package ». L'objectif principal est le développement d'un modèle généralpermettant de décrire la formation des IMC dans les joints de brasure. Combiné avecune analyse par éléments finis ce modèle pourra être utilisé pour prédire la formationdes IMC dans les joints de brasure pour des structures et des profils de missiondifférents. Le modèle de formation des IMC pourra être utilisé pour optimiser unprocessus TLPS.A further miniaturization of microelectronic components by three dimensionalpackaging, as well as the use of microelectronic devices under harsh environmentconditions, requires the development of more robust alternatives to the existing Snbased solder joints. One promising technique is the diffusion and migration driventransformation of conventional solder bumps into intermetallic compound (IMC)connections. The related process is called transient liquid phase soldering (TLPS).Against this background an investigation of the IMC formation under consideration ofelectromigration and thermomigration was performed. For the stress tests Packageon Package structures are used. The final result is a general model for the IMCformation in solder joints. Combined with a Finite Element Analysis (FEA) this modelis used to predict the IMC formation in solder joints for a broad range of boundaryconditions. In future the model of the IMC formation can be used to optimize a TLPSprocess

Modélisation de l’évolution de la microstructure d’alliage SAC sous contraintes thermiques, thermomécaniques et électriques

A further miniaturization of microelectronic components by three dimensionalpackaging, as well as the use of microelectronic devices under harsh environmentconditions, requires the development of more robust alternatives to the existing Snbased solder joints. One promising technique is the diffusion and migration driventransformation of conventional solder bumps into intermetallic compound (IMC)connections. The related process is called transient liquid phase soldering (TLPS).Against this background an investigation of the IMC formation under consideration ofelectromigration and thermomigration was performed. For the stress tests Packageon Package structures are used. The final result is a general model for the IMCformation in solder joints. Combined with a Finite Element Analysis (FEA) this modelis used to predict the IMC formation in solder joints for a broad range of boundaryconditions. In future the model of the IMC formation can be used to optimize a TLPSprocess.L'assemblage tridimensionnel des circuits microélectroniques et leur utilisation dansdes conditions environnementales extrêmement sévères nécessitent ledéveloppement d’alternatives plus robustes pour les contacts électriques. Unetechnique prometteuse est la transformation des contacts de brasure conventionnelleen composés intermétalliques (IMC). Ce processus est appelé « Transient LiquidPhase Soldering » (TLPS).Dans ce contexte, des tests accélérés permettant la formation d’IMC parélectromigration et thermomigration ont été effectués sur des structures « Packageon Package ». L'objectif principal est le développement d'un modèle généralpermettant de décrire la formation des IMC dans les joints de brasure. Combiné avecune analyse par éléments finis ce modèle pourra être utilisé pour prédire la formationdes IMC dans les joints de brasure pour des structures et des profils de missiondifférents. Le modèle de formation des IMC pourra être utilisé pour optimiser unprocessus TLPS

Heating Rate Dependence of the Mechanisms of Copper Pumping in Through-Silicon Vias

In three-dimensional stacked-die packages, through-silicon vias (TSVs) are used to connect multiple adjacent dies through solder micro-bumps. During thermal cycling, the thermal expansion mismatch between the copper TSVs and the silicon dies creates large internal stresses in the hetero-structure, resulting in intrusion or protrusion of the TSV relative to the Si die. This phenomenon is commonly known as copper pumping and is a potential reliability concern as it impacts the stability of back-end-of-line structures. In this study, the copper-pumping phenomenon was investigated by thermally loading TSV structures via ex situ and in situ thermal cycling with various heating rates. The resulting TSV protrusion was characterized and it was revealed that copper pumping manifests itself via three distinct mechanisms: plasticity, grain boundary sliding, and interfacial sliding. Electron backscatter diffraction analysis revealed that grain boundary sliding occurs preferentially at incoherent sigma-3 boundaries, while coherent sigma-3 boundaries remain immobile. The operating conditions, including ambient temperature, heating rate and the microstructural features that influence these phenomena are discussed

Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity

High-latitude soils store vast amounts of perennially frozen and therefore inert organic matter. With rising global temperatures and consequent permafrost degradation, a part of this carbon store will become available for microbial decay and eventual release to the atmosphere. We have developed a simplified, two-dimensional multi-pool model to estimate the strength and timing of future carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes from newly thawed permafrost carbon (i.e. carbon thawed when temperatures rise above pre-industrial levels). We have especially simulated carbon release from deep deposits in Yedoma regions by describing abrupt thaw under thermokarst lakes. The computational efficiency of our model allowed us to run large, multi-centennial ensembles under various scenarios of future warming to express uncertainty inherent to simulations of the permafrost-carbon feedback. Under moderate warming of the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario, cumulated CO2 fluxes from newly thawed permafrost carbon amount to 20 to 58 petagrammes of carbon (Pg-C) (68% range) by the year 2100 and reach 40 to 98 Pg-C in 2300. The much larger permafrost degradation under strong warming (RCP8.5) results in cumulated CO2 release of 42–141 and 157–313 Pg-C (68% ranges) in the years 2100 and 2300, respectively. Our estimates do only consider fluxes from newly thawed permafrost but not from soils already part of the seasonally thawed active layer under preindustrial climate. Our simulated methane fluxes contribute a few percent to total permafrost carbon release yet they can cause up to 40% of total permafrost-affected radiative forcing in the 21st century (upper 68% range). We infer largest methane emission rates of about 50 Tg-CH4 year–1 around the mid of the 21st century when simulated thermokarst lake extent is at its maximum and when abrupt thaw under thermokarst lakes is accounted for. CH4 release from newly thawed carbon in wetland-affected deposits is only discernible in the 22nd and 23rd century because of the absence of abrupt thaw processes. We further show that release from organic matter stored in deep deposits of Yedoma regions does crucially affect our simulated circumpolar methane fluxes. The additional warming through the release from newly thawed permafrost carbon proved only slightly dependent on the pathway of anthropogenic emission and amounts about 0.03–0.14 °C (68% ranges) by end of the century. The warming increased further in the 22nd and 23rd century and was most pronounced under the RCP6.0 scenario with adding 0.16–0.39°C (68% range) to simulated global mean surface air temperatures in the year 2300

Observation-based modelling of permafrost carbon fluxes with accounting for deep carbon deposits and thermokarst activity

With rising global temperatures and consequent permafrost degradation a part of old carbon stored in high latitude soils will become available for microbial decay and eventual release to the atmosphere. To estimate the strength and timing of future carbon dioxide and methane fluxes from newly thawed permafrost carbon, we have developed a simplified, two-dimensional multi-pool model. As large amounts of soil organic matter are stored in depths below three meters, we have also simulated carbon release from deep deposits in Yedoma regions. For this purpose we have modelled abrupt thaw under thermokarst lakes which can unlock large amounts of soil carbon buried deep in the ground. The computational efficiency of our 2-D model allowed us to run large, multi-centennial ensembles of differing scenarios of future warming to express uncertainty inherent to simulations of the permafrost-carbon feedback. Our model simulations, which are constrained by multiple lines of recent observations, suggest cumulated CO2 fluxes from newly thawed permafrost until the year 2100 of 20-58 Pg-C under moderate warming (RCP2.6), and of 42–141Pg-C under strong warming (RCP8.5). Under intense thermokarst activity, our simulated methane fluxes proved substantial and caused up to 40 % of total permafrost-affected radiative forcing in the 21st century. By quantifying CH4 contributions from different pools and depth levels, we discuss the role of thermokarst dynamics in affecting future Arctic carbon release. The additional global warming through the release from newly thawed permafrost carbon proved only slightly dependent on the pathway of anthropogenic emission in our simulations and reached about 0.1 °C by end of the century. The long-term, permafrost-affected global warming increased further in the 22nd and 23rd century, reaching a maximum of about 0.4°C in the year 2300